Outstanding analysis. The rouletee wheel analogy cuts right through NASA's institutional optimism in a way that pure technical arguments often miss. I've seen similar dynamics in risk assessment across industries, but theres something uniquely dangerous when heritage systems breed complacency. That line about mistaking experience for proof really landed, we keep asking if the machine resembles the last one we survived, not whether it earned the right to carry people.
Yes, and still, conveying probabilities in tangible everyday terms sometimes does not land. I thought the proper example was a roulette wheel, the size of which is hidden. Also, it may or may not be fair—fat-tails and all that. Nassim Nicholas Taleb's "Fooled by Randomness" is full of examples that people might argue about, contrary to evidence. People do, after all, love to take credit for their success, but we blame failure on someone else.
Outstanding analysis. The rouletee wheel analogy cuts right through NASA's institutional optimism in a way that pure technical arguments often miss. I've seen similar dynamics in risk assessment across industries, but theres something uniquely dangerous when heritage systems breed complacency. That line about mistaking experience for proof really landed, we keep asking if the machine resembles the last one we survived, not whether it earned the right to carry people.
Yes, and still, conveying probabilities in tangible everyday terms sometimes does not land. I thought the proper example was a roulette wheel, the size of which is hidden. Also, it may or may not be fair—fat-tails and all that. Nassim Nicholas Taleb's "Fooled by Randomness" is full of examples that people might argue about, contrary to evidence. People do, after all, love to take credit for their success, but we blame failure on someone else.