Yes, and still, conveying probabilities in tangible everyday terms sometimes does not land. I thought the proper example was a roulette wheel, the size of which is hidden. Also, it may or may not be fair—fat-tails and all that. Nassim Nicholas Taleb's "Fooled by Randomness" is full of examples that people might argue about, contrary to evidence. People do, after all, love to take credit for their success, but we blame failure on someone else.
Yes, and still, conveying probabilities in tangible everyday terms sometimes does not land. I thought the proper example was a roulette wheel, the size of which is hidden. Also, it may or may not be fair—fat-tails and all that. Nassim Nicholas Taleb's "Fooled by Randomness" is full of examples that people might argue about, contrary to evidence. People do, after all, love to take credit for their success, but we blame failure on someone else.